Wes Welker Fantasy Football Advice

Week 2 – WR – Start or Sit – Darrius Heyward-Bey or Lance Moore?

Question: I have a WR dillema for week 2.

I have 3 WR spots and a WR/TE flex spot this week. My WR’s are Wes Welker, Roddy White, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Lance Moore? Who would you sit?

Best answer:

I would go with Lance Moore. The Saints are playing the Panthers this week, who don’t have a very solid defense. Brees will be throwing a lot. Although Moore is Brees’ 4th option after Jimmy Graham, Colston, and Sproles, Brees still likes Moore who had 120 yards last week and 1 TD. Darrisu Heyward-Bey had a decent week 1, but I would go with Lance Moore who has a better matchup and a more impressive week 1.

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Who To Draft: Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski? (2012)

Jimmy Graham vs. Rob GronkowskiWhich TE do I draft first? Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski?

I expect Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski to go in the beginning of round 2. I think these players do deserve to go where they’re getting drafting. A lot of people are saying these players are getting overdrafted. I disagree. After Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julio Jones, I put both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham over any other wide receiver. Both will have over 1,200 receiving yards and at least 8 TDs.  In 2011, both Graham and Gronkowski had over 1,300 receiving yards and over 10 TDs. Gronkowski edged Graham out in both categories: 1,327 yards and 17 TDs compared to 1,310 yards and 11 TDs.

2011 Statistics

ROB GRONKOWSKI (16 games)
90 receptions, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs (124 targets)

JIMMY GRAHAM (16 games)
99 receptions, 1,310 yards, 11 TDs, (149 targets)

2012 Fantasy Rankings

NFL.com’s composite rankings has Ron Gronkowski ranked #13 and Jimmy Graham ranked #15 with Julio Jones in between. Yahoo has Jimmy Graham ranked #11 and Rob Gronkowski #13 with Larry Fitzgerald in between. Very interesting.

2012 Fantasy Outlook

The bottom line is you can’t miss with either of these guys with an early second round pick. You have to take them over the top WR and RB in the next class after the top 5 RBs, top 5 QBs, and top 3 WRs are off the board. If you’re sitting with the #14 or #15 pick in your fantasy draft, if Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are there, you take them. I have them ranked #10 and #11 after Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson followed by Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones.

You can even make the debate that one of these guys is worth as high as as #7 behind Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Johnson, and Brady. They don’t have the injury concerns that come with running backs, they get slightly less total yards than a #4 or #5 RB, but far outpace their TD numbers.

Now that we know where these guys should fall in the draft, who do you take if you have an opportunity to pick between these players? I am going to go with Jimmy Graham.

My concern with Gronkowski is that his TD numbers should drop from 17 to around 12 plus/minus 2. First, because teams and coaches will be more prepared for him this season, especially in the red zone. It’s not like the same doesn’t apply to Graham as well though. Another factor that has me liking Graham over Gronkowski is the addition of Brandon Lloyd to the Patriots offense, which will take more targets away from Gronkowski this year. Brady didn’t have another receiver outside of Wes Welker to work with. With Brandon Lloyd in the mix, 60-80 receptions and 1,000-1,200 yards will be taken away from the rest of the Patriots offensive production.

Graham, on the other hand, is Drew Brees’ top target in the passing game, followed by Marques Colston. Sproles is clearly the top backfield option, then Devery Henderson and Lance Moore are a distant fourth. With Meachem’s potential touches now going to the rest of the Saints offense, that should also provide a slight boost to Graham’s potential in 2012.  I can see Graham matching or exceeding his reception production even at a ridiculous 99 receptions, but I see a slight decline in Gronkowski’s receptions from 90 recpeptions to 80 receptions. I expect both players get about 10 TDs plus/minus 2. That puts them right behind Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson and just a hair ahead of Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald in my book.

And the fantasy pick is Jimmy Graham!

Week 9 – WR – Nate Washington or Deion Branch?

Question: Which WR should I start after Roddy White… Nate Washington or Deion Branch?

Which 2 wide receivers would you play? I have Roddy White, Nate Washington, Deion Branch, and Jabar Gaffney. Feel free to give your reason behind the choice as well.  Thank you.

Best answer:

I would go with Deion Branch. Now that he’s back with Tom Brady, he’s a much better option than Nate Washington and Jabar Gaffney. Nate Washington will get lots of looks with Kenny Britt out. However, I would still take the receiver that’s paired up with Brady although Brady will mostly throw to Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski.

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Week 3 Start or Sit: Steve Smith or Johnny Knox?

Question: Week 3 start and sit – Steve Smith (CAR) or Johnny Knox?

I have Wes Welker, Hakeen Nicks, Steve Smith (CAR) and Johnny Knox as WRs on my fantasy team. I am obviously going with Wes Welker and Hakeem Nicks as my first two starters. I have to decide between Steve Smith and Johnny Knox.

Steve Smith gets a new QB and a tough CIN corner who shut down Randy Moss in week 1 and Anquan Boldin in week 2. Should I start Johnny Knox instead? What do you think?

Answer:

I don’t like the matchup the Chicago Bears have, so I would stick with Steve Smith. Johnny Knox hasn’t been as consistent. Although he has surprise upside with 100+ yard games, he also has an equal chance of being held to under 20 yards.

What do you think? Answer below!

Week 5: Matt Schaub or Ben Roethlisberger?

Question: Week 5 start sit questions?

I have have a bit of a dilemma here and can’t decide on who to start this week.

QB – Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Schaub – This one is a toss up

RB – Ahman Green or Thomas Jones – I’m leaning towards Green

WR - Wes Welker, Andre Davis, Tory Holt, Dwayne Bowe, Lee Evans – Need to pick three

Answer

Ahman Green is still questionable for this week so that’s a tough one. I would play Matt Schaub because he’s going up against Miami’s defense and should put up big numbers. At wide receiver I would probably go with Wes Welker, Dwyane Boye and then Andre Davis in the third roster spot.

Know better? Leave your own answer in the comments!

Week 9 – Start/Sit – Steve Smith or Dwayne Bowe?

Question: I need some help deciding which WR to start and sit and week 9.

I can start 3 of these players and this is for a PPR league. Here are my receivers.

Wes Welker – He’s a lock to start
Nate Burleson vs. DET
Steve Smith (NY) vs. SD
Dwayne Bowe vs. JAX

Which player do I sit, Burleson, Smith, or Bowe?

Best answer:

Burelson has better numbers than T.J. Houshmanzadeh right now so I would start him against Detroit. I know the Giants have been struggling lately, but they should get back on track against San Diego. I would start Steve Smith, who is still one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL.

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